Will Municipal Bonds Come Back?

A continuation of the “Golden Age of Public Finance” or a more moderate time of budget management?

Municipal bond market analysts have differing predictions for 2022, but one thing is certain: demand for debt issued by state and municipal governments will continue to be quite robust.

Are municipal bonds a good investment for 2022?

The key drivers of the municipal market are all positive, therefore 2022 is expected to see ongoing robust demand for municipal bonds. Taxes are first and foremost. Investors are still concerned about increasing taxes and will do everything possible to avoid them, keeping demand high.

Are municipal bonds a good investment in 2021?

  • Municipal bond interest is tax-free in the United States, however there may be state or local taxes, or both.
  • Be aware that if you receive Social Security, your bond interest will be recognized as income when determining your Social Security taxable amount. This could result in you owing more money.
  • Municipal bond interest rates are often lower than corporate bond interest rates. You must decide which deal offers the best genuine return.
  • On the bright side, compared to practically any other investment, highly-rated municipal bonds are often relatively safe. The default rate is quite low.
  • Interest rate risk exists with any bond. You’ll be stuck with a bad performer if your money is locked up for 10 or 20 years and interest rates climb.

Are municipal bonds a good investment right now?

  • Municipal bonds were one of the most stable fixed income asset classes in 2021, with positive returns and minimal volatility across a wide range of credit and maturity.
  • New issuance slightly exceeded the record set in 2020, but supply was quickly absorbed by surprisingly continuous fund inflows.
  • Record state and local revenues, stimulus spending, minimal defaults, and idiosyncratic strength helped credit outperform by the largest margin in more than a decade.

Despite substantially higher interest rates, municipal bonds kept their value throughout 2021, generating among of the highest relative returns among fixed income assets. The asset class is poised for a great technical and fundamental year in 2022. Looking ahead, the Federal Reserve of the United States (Fed) appears to be refocusing on fighting inflation, which could create headwinds for fixed income in the near term.

Will muni bonds recover?

Credit conditions for most municipal issuers are expected to remain positive in 2022, and defaults are expected to stay low. Increases in business and income taxes have boosted revenues. Issuers with higher revenues have more financial freedom. Furthermore, because property taxes are typically the main source of revenue for local governments, the improved property market should benefit them.

Why are muni bonds falling?

Some economists predict a reduction in muni demand this year due to a predicted slowing in household savings, which grew during the pandemic, particularly among the wealthy. The demand for tax-exempt debt has long outstripped annual issuance.

Why are municipal bonds losing value?

The prospect of rising short-term yields is one of the key hazards connected with municipal bonds. This means that new bonds will pay a greater interest rate to bondholders, and your bond will be perceived as less valuable. This may result in a decrease in the value of your bond. Only if you decide to sell the bond would this be a problem. Your interest payments will continue to be made.

What will bonds do in 2022?

By the end of 2022, strategists polled by Bloomberg News expect higher Treasury yields, with the 10-year yield climbing to 2.04 percent and 30-year bonds rising to 2.45 percent.

When should you invest in municipal bonds?

Municipal bonds are an excellent method to keep your money safe while earning interest. The majority of them are tax-free at the federal level, and several are also tax-free at the state and local levels. Munis are frequently treated as an unique asset class, therefore understanding the fundamentals of muni bonds is essential.

What is the outlook for bonds in 2022?

The rate differential between five-year Treasury notes and Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities, or TIPS, is measured by this indicator. This figure is close to the Federal Reserve’s own estimates of 2.6 percent for 2022 and 2.3 percent for the following year.

Opportunity cost

Municipal bonds’ tax advantages aren’t as valuable if you’re in a lower tax band as they are if you’re in a higher tax bracket.

If that’s the case, you could be better off putting your money into alternative investments for a larger return.

They may not be liquid

If you need money quickly, you should be aware that municipal bonds may have liquidity problems.

You might not be able to find an active market for your bonds, which means you won’t be able to sell them when you want at the price you want.